Climate Action Plan, Phase 3: “Window of Vulnerability”

Climate change impacts have been widely documented globally, across the nation, and within the state. Loss of snowpack; longer, more frequent heat waves; and longer, more intense wildfire seasons are already being experienced in California. While uncertainties remain about the exact timing and extent of projected impacts, numerous climate-driven hazards represent a clear threat to Department of Water Resources (DWR) facilities, managed lands, operations, and staff activities. By conducting this department-wide vulnerability assessment, DWR seeks to better prepare its decision-making for an uncertain future. This climate change vulnerability assessment (VA) provides the first evaluation of its kind for facilities owned and operated by DWR and the activities that DWR performs. This analysis draws from the extensive body of knowledge about climate change and attempts to evaluate, describe, and quantify — where possible — DWR’s vulnerabilities to expected increases in wildfire, extreme heat, and sea-level rise, as well as to changes in hydrology and ecosystems that will impact DWR’s facilities, operations, and other activities. Table ES-1 presents examples of vulnerabilities identified in this assessment and summarizes quantitative indicators of climate change risk. Using a mid-century time horizon, climate-change-driven hazards assessed in this VA are presented under six categories: wildfire, extreme heat, sea-level rise, long-term persistent hydrologic changes, short-term extreme hydrologic events, and habitat and ecosystem services degradation. This assessment applies a common framework to examine vulnerability through three components of how DWR’s assets and operations could be exposed to future climate hazards, how these assets and operations are sensitive (or susceptible) to impacts of this exposure, and the capacity of these assets and operations to cope with or adapt to changing conditions or events. Findings from each hazard are summarized below.